PlanB Foresees a Frenzied Bull Market for Bitcoin: Highlights RSI Indicator and Suggests Lower Risks for Bulls

2 min readDec 20, 2023

Bitcoin’s Rising Momentum: Analyzing RSI and MVRV

PlanB, the anonymous analyst renowned for the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has recently updated the S2F model data, boldly predicting that Bitcoin’s price could reach $500,000 in this cycle. On December 19, he surprised the crypto community by posting a new Bitcoin analysis chart on Twitter, drawing attention to the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, subtly hinting at a bullish stance for Bitcoin.

Further reading：Bloomberg ETF Analyst Predicts: Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval Looms, Ether Spot ETF Likely by May Next Year

RSI Indicating Strong Momentum

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), an indicator of price momentum, shows Bitcoin’s RSI hovering between 60 to 65, indicating that the asset is yet to reach an extreme overbought state compared to past bull market peaks of 90.

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MVRV Points to Profitable Territory

The MVRV ratio, showcasing the market value against the realized value, is currently around 2. This implies that the current market price is about twice the average purchase price of Bitcoin holders.

Asymmetric Bets: The Investment Holy Grail

The use of the AsymmetricBets suggests investments where potential rewards far outweigh the risks — a scenario every investor dreams of. It signifies that Bitcoin’s potential upside at present might significantly surpass the downside risks.

Further reading：Bitwise’s ‘Top 10 Crypto Predictions for 2024’: Bitcoin Poised to Hit a New High of $80,000

Interpreting PlanB’s Analysis

RSI & MVRV Dynamics: PlanB’s chart combining MVRV ratio with RSI provides investors with insights on when to buy or sell Bitcoin. For instance, a high RSI and MVRV might signal an overheated market, while low values could be a buying opportunity.
Forecasting Further Growth: Analyzing past trends against the current chart, PlanB seems to imply that the RSI and MVRV could rise further, suggesting more room for Bitcoin’s price growth.
Bitcoin as an Asymmetric Bet: The AsymmetricBets indicates that investing in Bitcoin now may have a much larger scope for appreciation compared to potential losses.

A Word of Caution

While these indicators provide valuable insights, they are not always perfectly in sync with Bitcoin’s price trends. For instance, these indicators did not reach new highs when Bitcoin hit its peak in late 2021. Therefore, investment analysis should integrate multiple tools and knowledge, as no single chart can fully explain all investment decisions.